Data from Lightstone Property has revealed that home ownership among South Africa’s youth is declining due to multiple factors.
In the same breath, data showed that house prices have risen quickest in percentage terms in the lower price bands over the last 10 years, but the gap between the higher and lower bands has widened.
Hayley Ivins-Downes, managing executive for real estate at Lightstone Property, said the data analyses property trends in 2014 and 2025. It has confirmed that property sales volumes have drifted downwards while prices have escalated most significantly in the higher price bands.
However, what it found to be most worrying from the information is the decline of buyers aged 18-35, both in percentage terms from 40% to 30% but also in numbers from 72 000 in 2014 to 47 000 in 2025.
Not a temporary issue
Ivins-Downes said economists, policymakers and institutions like the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have increasingly described this as a structural affordability problem, not just a temporary cycle.
She added that there is a reason behind the decline in younger buyers and this includes lifestyle changes, house prices rising faster than wages, large deposit requirements, higher student debt, stricter mortgage rules following the 2008 global financial crisis and in some cases, a lack of confidence in government or in the future.
“Implicit in this shift is a wealth transfer from young to old,” said Ivins-Downes.
“We are seeing that the younger people rent from older people, often paying higher proportions of their income for housing. In the process, housing wealth has shifted towards older generations.”
Property trends
She said that residential property volumes have declined from 247 000 units sold in 2014 to 218 000 units in 2025, with just the Covid-bounce years of 2021 and 2022 bucking the trend.
According to Lightstone Property data, the luxury segment has continued to widen its lead over other price bands.
However, property price growth is not uniform across the country, and location plays a major role. A home that cost R1 million in 2014 would now be valued at about R2.1 million in Cape Town, R1.5 million in Nelson Mandela Bay, around R1.4 million in both eThekwini and Tshwane, and just over R1.2 million in Johannesburg.
What the future will hold
Ivins-Downes said if things do not get better, the following might be the outcome:
- A permanent renter class emerges as homeownership is delayed or unattainable for many younger households. Large institutional landlords may expand or emerge where they don’t exist.
- Slower household formation as young people move out later and delay having children. This already appears to be happening in several countries.
- Political pressure and policy intervention as housing affordability grows in importance as a major political issue. Possible responses could include rent controls, large-scale housing construction, taxes on investors and inheritance taxes on housing wealth.
- Long-term demand risk for housing markets. Ironically, if young buyers never enter the market, future housing demand could weaken. Housing markets historically rely on first-time buyers moving up the ladder. If the ladder breaks, transaction volumes will fall and prices become dependent on wealth transfers (inheritance, family help).
