Eskom said there will be no load shedding this winter. The Eskom defined winter period is from 1 April to 31 August 2026.
Eskom’s 2026 Winter Outlook said the positive winter outlook followed the successful conclusion of the summer period. In the summer the national grid operated with ongoing sustained reliability.
It stated that Eskom has moved beyond short‑term recovery into a phase of stability and sustained energy security. This will ensure that homes, businesses and industries remain powered through the peak winter months.
This stability is underscored by Eskom maintaining a consistent energy supply of 98.9% in the last financial year (1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026). In 2023 load shedding peaked at 24 638 Gigawatt-hours (GWh). The improvement since then reflected a fundamental strengthening of generation performance, operational discipline and system resilience.
Focus on planned maintenance
This was driven by a focus on maintenance, which increased from only 9.94% of capacity in 2019 to 13.25% in 2024. The resulted in unplanned outages easing to 25.06% in 2025 from 26.36% in 2024 and 33.08% in 2023. The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) subsequently improved to 62.44% in 2025 from 59.79% in 2024 and 54.69% in 2023.
In the first 16 weeks of 2026, the EAF is 67.22% with planned maintenance at 12.7% and unplanned outages at 19.74%.
These improvements have enabled Eskom to lower its base‑case assumption for unplanned outages to approximately 12 Gigawatts (GW). This compares with 13 GW in the 2025 winter outlook.
Even under higher‑stress conditions, where unplanned losses approach 14 GW, the system is expected to remain resilient. This will ensure that no load shedding will take place this winter. Eskom has a surplus peak capacity of about 6 GW over the winter period.
Expanded customer base
This Winter 2026 Outlook takes into account Eskom’s expanded customer base.
In the past financial year, Eskom completed 67 578 new household connections. A further 2 119 households were supplied through distributed energy resources (DERs).
Despite supplying electricity to these additional customers compared to the previous winter, Eskom says there is sufficient capacity to meet expected demand.
Load Reduction
Eskom said it will accelerate the elimination of load reduction. Already, the Northern Cape and Western Cape now fully removed from load reduction schedules. On a national level, more than 340 000 customers who previously faced load reduction are no longer experiencing it. This will ensure they keep warm during the winter months.
A key part of the programme is the installation of more than 600 000 smart meters. These improve network visibility, support better load management and help stabilise local electricity networks.
Rooftop solar photovoltaic supply to residences and businesses help to reduce the demand on Eskom’s power supply. This is especially so in the summer rainfall areas such as Gauteng, as winter is generally a time of cloudless days.
Eskom estimates that rooftop capacity is just below 7 700 Megawatts.
