Non-Eskom electricity generation grew by 16.2% year-on-year in March 2026. Correspondingly, Eskom generation declined by 9.8%. Total electricity generation fell by 7.0%.
Non-Eskom generation is dependent on the sun and wind. Generally, February, March and April are low generation months. This is because the wind does not blow as hard as it does in August. In addition, clouds degrade solar photo-voltaic (PV) production.
Accordingly, non-Eskom generation as a share of total generation eased to 13,5% in March from 14.9% in February, 17.1% in January and 17.3% in December. Nonetheless, the March 2026 share is significantly higher than the 10.8% share in March 2025. The share in 2026 is expected to exceed 20% as more solar PV and wind power Independent Power Producers (IPP) projects are linked to the grid.
Impact on Eskom
As the generation from IPPs has increased, so Eskom has scaled back its generation from coal-fired power stations. On 20 February 2026, Eskom had 9 897 Megawatt (MW) in cold reserve due to excess capacity.
Declining electricity sales will mean that Eskom will have increase tariffs to its remaining customers. This may force more of its customers to generate their own electricity or buy electricity from cheaper electricity provided by IPPs.
That is why Cape Town intends spending R6 billion for electricity grid upgrades. These are aimed at reducing reliance on Eskom. It already has its own pumped-storage scheme at Steenbras. During the load shedding years of 2022 and 2023, this helped Cape Town ‘evade’ two stages of load shedding.
Electricity consumption
There was an easing in the year-on-year declines in electricity consumption in March. It was ‘only’ 3.5% after a 6.1% drop in January. In December there was a 6.9% decline. This followed three months when the decline exceeded 7% year-on-year. The seasonally adjusted monthly change was a 2.1% increase in March.
Statistics South Africa labels the consumption data as “distributed in South Africa.” It however excludes consumption from rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations at houses and businesses. These are behind the meter and this consumption is not reported to Statistics South Africa. One way of estimating this consumption is to compare cloudy day demand for grid electricity with sunny day demand.
Eskom estimates there’s 7 463.6 Megawatts (MW) of behind the meter capacity currently. This may result in at least 5 000 MW generation on a sunny day and only 1 500 MW on a cloudy day.
Ferroalloy deal
Eskom said on 10 April that it had concluded 62c/kWh electricity tariff for ferroalloy smelters. This will save the South African ferroalloy industry. Industries such as steel and ferroalloy smelting had to close down electric arc furnaces in 2025.
This was because they were unable to compete with international suppliers who had access to cheap reliable power. Consequently, South African chrome and manganese mines exported raw ore to China. There they were beneficiated into value-added ferroalloys and steel.
