The latest storms are not just normal winter rain, but rather a rare and intense phenomenon, with some meteorologists comparing it to the scale of the Durban floods of April 2022, say weather experts.
Vox weather meteorologist Annette Botha said the weather being declared a national disaster shows how serious the situation has become.
Cape storms ‘rare and intense’
“A lot of people are asking how this compares to past events and, honestly, what we’ve seen over the past week or two has been pretty significant.
“There have actually been two different weather systems at work here,” she said.
Botha said accumulated rainfall totals of more than 100mm are still likely by this evening, with some areas receiving another 200-300mm within the next 36 to 48 hours.
“Damaging winds also remain a major concern with gusts of over 100km/h possible over parts of the Cape interior as well as along the west and south coasts.”
Botha said the first event was last week’s strong cut-off low, which brought major flooding to parts of the Southern Cape, Garden Route, Little Karoo and Central Karoo.
Last week’s flooding ‘wasn’t normal winter rain’
“This wasn’t just normal winter rain – it was quite a rare and intense setup. Some meteorologists have even compared the scale of the event to the Durban floods of April 2022 in terms of how extreme the rainfall and impacts were in affected areas,” she added.
Botha said storms like this are not unusual for the Cape, which is why the region became known as the Cape of Storms, but added that this specific phenomenon has been particularly rough because the fronts are so strong and closely packed together.
“What also makes this interesting is the bigger climate picture. After one of the wettest summer rainfall seasons in years over many parts of the country, there’s already growing talk about a possible El Nino developing later this year into the 2026-27 summer,” Botha said.
“According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest outlook, there’s around a 61% chance of El Nino conditions developing from May to July and about a onein-four chance of it becoming a strong event.
“Historically, strong El Nino years can sometimes bring hotter and drier conditions to South Africa’s summer rainfall areas – especially the central and eastern parts of the country. But it’s important to remember that El Nino-southern oscillation patterns mainly influence South Africa during the summer rainfall season, not winter,” said Botha.
El Nino impact
“We’re moving into winter now, when the weather over the Western Cape is driven far more by cold fronts and mid-latitude systems than by El Nino itself.”
Botha said any real El Nino impacts would mainly only start becoming noticeable from around spring into summer.
“Even past super El Nino events have behaved differently. In 1982- 83, it caused major agricultural losses, while 1997-98 didn’t bring the typical dry pattern many expected,” she said.
Associate professor of meteorology at the University of Pretoria Liesl Dyson said SA had an extraordinary summer rainfall season, which has continued into autumn.
“The past week’s rainfall in the Garden Route and Eastern Cape interior has been phenomenal. The damage associated with the cut off low of last week reminds one of the extreme rainfalls in KZN just three years ago,” said Dyson.
Vulnerable to climate change
“Extreme weather is not limited to certain geographical areas but we are all vulnerable to the changing climate.”
Dyson said there are some discrepancies for the seasonal forecast for the winter rainfall area because while the South African Weather Service was confident of a below-normal rainfall season, the forecast from Seasonal Forecast Worx at the University of Pretoria foresees a normal to above-normal rainfall season this winter.
The University’s model predicts a strong El Nino state towards the end of 2026.
