Thailand is not heading for a repeat of the devastating 2011 floods, according to two leading disaster and environmental specialists, even as heavy rain continues to soak parts of the country this week.
Rangsit University’s Climate Change and Disaster Centre director, who also works with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a marine and environmental academic at Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Fisheries, both say a nationwide flood disaster on the scale of 2011 is “virtually impossible” this year.
They point to different climate patterns, sharply lower northern river flows and a much smaller flooded area so far. Still, both caution that western Thailand faces run off risk, and that so called “rain bombs”, or intense localised downpours, could still trigger flash flooding in cities.
Heavy rain shifts west
Accumulated rainfall over September 25 and 26 exceeded 300 millimetres in several western and central provinces, including Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi, Nakhon Sawan and Kamphaeng Phet.
Bangkok and eastern areas saw moderate to heavy morning rain that eased by afternoon. Nationwide rainfall is expected to decline sharply from September 27, with conditions returning to normal by September 28 except in parts of the West and upper Northwest.
Northern flows well below 2011 levels
The Royal Irrigation Department has raised releases from the Chao Phraya Dam to roughly 1,850 cubic metres per second, lifting flood levels outside embankments.
The Rangsit University centre director said the real warning sign, northern floodwaters overtopping embankments, is not happening. Flows at Nakhon Sawan currently sit at around 1,800 cubic metres per second, against as much as 4,600 in 2011.
He also criticised agencies for lacking proper risk assessments and questioned whether drainage pumping capacity is adequate.
Three factors separating 2026 from 2011
The Kasetsart academic cited three reasons a repeat is unlikely.
Climate: 2011 saw La Niña bring early, doubled rainfall, while 2026 is under El Niño heading towards a “super El Niño.”
Cyclones: five tropical storms hit Thailand directly in 2011, versus none so far this year.
Flooded area: satellite data showed 912,000 hectares flooded in August 2011, compared with under 64,000 hectares this August, less than one tenth.
‘Rain bombs’ remain a risk
He warned, however, that rising sea temperatures and evaporation, with atmospheric water vapour up roughly 7% per 1°C of warming, mean localised “rain bombs” can still cause flash flooding in vulnerable spots such as Pattaya and parts of Bangkok.
A monsoon trough is currently bringing heavy rain to the East, lower Northeast and Bangkok area. He advised residents to track rain radar two to three hours ahead and check windy.com, thaiwater.net and the Thai Meteorological Department for updates, reported Bangkok Business News.
In related news:
- Increased rainfall unlikely to cause 2011-like floods, says ONWR
- Bangkok ensures readiness against rising water levels, avoiding 2011 flood repeat
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