The Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) and the Office of the National Water Resources (ONWR) warned yesterday, April 28, that El Niño could bring prolonged drought to Thailand for at least two to three years, with conditions expected to worsen in 2027.
The ONWR said El Niño, a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather patterns, is expected to affect Thailand more prominently from July onwards. The impact is forecast to peak from November to December and continue into early 2027.
Officials said there is still no confirmation that the weather pattern will develop into a super El Niño, which is typically linked to more extreme heat and prolonged dry conditions.
However, Thailand is expected to face hotter and drier conditions, prompting the government to order relevant agencies to prepare in advance.
Water management at major reservoirs will need to be planned two years ahead to ensure enough supply until 2028.
Although Bhumibol Dam and Sirikit Dam still have high reserves at the start of the season, Prachuap Khiri Khan and Chumphon have already declared drought-hit areas after low rainfall.
GISTDA said satellite technology is being used to help farmers plan ahead, as temperatures reaching 44 degrees Celsius this year pose a direct risk to soil moisture.
The agency expects drought conditions to continue for another two to three years, with a concerning dry spell forecast for August to September this year.
Thai PBS reported that tools such as the “Check Drought” app, which helps farmers assess drought conditions, and Dragonfly, a plot-level farming platform, are being used to support dry-season planning.
Government agencies are integrating data and preparing financial support measures through the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives.
However, officials said farmers, especially those outside irrigation zones, should still conserve water and choose crops suited to the severe dry conditions expected in 2027.
In a separate development, Thailand’s government is preparing to issue an emergency loan decree worth 500,000 million baht to build up financial reserves ahead of compounding economic risks, including a super El Niño weather event and elevated global energy prices.
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